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Markets move thematically, reflecting money flows across national boundaries and asset classes.Once these themes appear, they can persist for a significant time.
In training programs in professional psychology, we're encouraged to see the world through the eyes of others. Indeed, while the dollar-based SPX marginally exceeded its 2000 levels, the Dollar Index-based SPX has only retraced half the bear market declines of 2000-2003.In other words, it was more the absence of selling than the presence of significant buying that enabled stocks to move higher through the day.This raises interesting questions: Are rallies based on excess buying more durable than those supported by subnormal selling?My most recent blog posts examine 2007 opportunity as a function of sector, national markets, and investment styles.Moving in and out of markets can blind one to the bigger themes that shape longer-term opportunity.We see some of the same dynamics among those who work on their trading.
The intensity of change and learning efforts is correlated with the success of those efforts.If their distress levels are too low, they lack the motivation to sustain change.The moderate distress is a powerful driver for change.The successful investor will be one who can see the world through global lenses My recent blog posts have examined what I call "herding sentiment", the concentration of volume into either advancing or declining stocks.In the past few months, we have seen very high herding sentiment, as we shift between extreme buying and selling with above average regularity.What made Friday's rally unique was that buying interest was actually below average relative to the prior 30-day average.